2011 October 25
Editor, Abbotsford News:
I regret that your policy will not allow you to print this letter because I am a Candidate for Abbotsford City Council on November 19, 2011.
Your column today is one of the more reasonable commentaries that Abbotsford has seen on our proposed Stave Lake P3 water supply addition.
However, like City Hall's campaign, you have unwittingly based your observations on unusual data.
Specifically, the City is working from a WATER MASTER PLAN delivered last year my AECOM Canada Ltd. For its studies, observations, conclusions and recommendations AECOM used Abbotsford's water
system data from 2007 which reported that our "Maximum Day Demand" was 142 MLD (mega-litres/day)
for both Mission and Abbotsford.
Consequently all of the city's calculations (and your editorial) are based on this extraordinary
"Maximum Day Demand" water number from the summer of 2007.
The reality of our water demand is quite different.
Abbotsford-Mission water demand averages 78 MLD through the year, but after the "scare" of 2007,
when on several days demand hit 142 MLD,
our City brought to our attention that we had a problem with our excessive and wasteful habits for water consumption.
To see what happened next we need to look at where our water is being consumed.
At an "Average Day Demand" of 78 MLD: 41 MLD Residential, 13 MLD ICI (business), 10 MLD Ag, 14 MLD for "non-revenue water" (largely fire-fighting and leakage).
On a peak demand day of 142 MLD: 93 MLD Residential, 15 MLD ICI, 20 MLD Ag, 14 MLD "non-revenue water"
On a "Maximum Demand Day" our water consumption increases by 82% over our "Average Day Demand"
On a "Maximum Demand Day our residential water goes from an average of 41 to 93 MLD..... no wonder lawn watering restrictions are so successful!
In August of this year, when we were being much more reasonable about water consumption due to the cool weather and lawn-watering restrictions,
our "Maximum Day Demand" was 80 MLD.
Suggesting that our current "Maximum Day Demand" is 142 MLD is irrational and inaccurate.
Currently our water supply is 143 MLD: 89 MLD Norish Creek, 9 MLD Cannell Lake, 45 MLD assorted wells.
We can also add another 25 MLD for the recent increased capacity of our Beven Avenue wells (on a five year permit) so total supply is 165 MLD.
Summarizing those numbers: Supply: 165 MLD, "Average Day Demand": 78 MLD; "Maximum Day Demand": 80 MLD
And the City is trying to tell us we need more water?
The above numbers don't even take into account the 17.5% (14 MLD) "Non-Revenue Water", which is primarily leaks. Ever since we installed those radio-read water meters there has been a steady list of new leaks identified. It is most reasonable to expect that we can reduce both Average and Maximum Day Demand by a further 10 MLD as we repair these leaks.
The above numbers also don't take into account the rather dramatic demand reductions that we can expect from our new seasonal, tiered water billing rates on bimonthly invoices. In a Staff report dated February 11, 2011 City Council was advised to expect a 25% reduction in water demand from these seasonal, tiered water rates.
"Average Day Demand" now becomes: 78 MLD -10 for stoped leaks -10 for the 25% reduction = 58 MLD; i.e. just 36% of our supply.
I am not sure why the first phase of the Stave Lake project has been reduced to 100 MLD but when I add
that 100 MLD to our existing 165 MLD I get 265 MLD which is so wildly in excess of our average demand that I won't even bother to calculate a percentage.
We don't need any more water.
But just in case we do build it, let's look at the costs of the Stave proposal
$300m for the Stave pump, treatment plant and pipeline
$108m for the affiliated expansion of the J.A.M.E.S. plant to treat all that extra sewer
$100m for 25 or 30 years operation costs
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$508m or almost $3,500 for each citizen in Abbotsford (including babies!)
I think I'd rather spend the HALF BILLION DOLLARS on making our city an even nicer place to live.
Yours truly,
William Aird Flavelle
Candidate for City Council
3170 Horn Street, Abbotsford
604-855-4221
Addendum 2011 Oct 27: Almost all of my numbers come from the AECOM report which is now Abbotsford's Water Master Plan: http://bit.ly/atUbmH There is one number that isn't in the report - that is the August 2011 "Maximum Day Demand" of 80 MLD. This number was verbally presented to Council at the October 17th City council meeting.
Aird